Five races into the NASCAR Cup season (five races into the Xfinity Series and three into the Camping World Truck Series) and we have had, as everyone is fond of pointing out, five different winners. And while a lot can change over the course of the rest of the season, five weeks is enough to at least take stock of what has transpired so far.
- A.J. Allmendinger will win the 2021 Xfinity Series Championship. In my pre-season “Bold Predictions” column, I had Harrison Burton as my pick to win the Xfinity Championship (which, looking back on it, wasn’t as bold a prediction as my picks for the Cup and Truck championships). However, I am going to jump ship and switch my allegiance to A.J. Allmendinger. After a breakout year in 2020, Kaulig Racing is perhaps THE team to beat in Xfinity Series. Allmendinger, serving as the veteran on the team and with a lot of confidence after proving he’s not just a road course ringer, is poised to have the best year of his career and win the championship.
- There will not be sixteen winners in the Cup series before the playoffs. As stated above, there has been a lot of talk about how many different winners there will be and if “win and you’re in” is necessarily going to be true in 2021. While I will be happy to see more first-time and/or unexpected winners rather than the usual suspects, Martin Truex, Jr. is going to usher in a wave of multiple winners. Truex and another 2021 winner, Kyle Larson will be joining the Harvicks, the Hamlins, the Buschs, and the Elliotts in heading to Victory Lane on a repeat and regular basis. The road courses, superspeedways and the Bristol dirt track may give some of the drivers who routinely finish in the Top 20 a chance to snag a Top 5, but the winners will continue to be familiar names.
- Of the five current winners, Martin Truex, Jr. has the best chance to win the Cup championship. With all due respect to Kyle Larson, it’s not even close. Yes, Larson has had some success in the past with Chip Ganassi Racing (which makes it surprising that analysts seem to portray Larson as having raced for the Tommy Joe Martin Racings of the world prior to this point) and he is racing for another proven winner at Hendrick Motorsports, but when push comes to shove, Martin Truex Jr. has more experience in running for (to say nothing of winning) a championship than Larson. This is also what separates him from Christopher Bell and William Byron. While Michael McDowell was the best “feel good” story of 2021 so far in NASCAR, I defy you to find anyone who picks him to advance past the first round, since many analysts aren’t even sure if he’ll make the playoffs. (See Thought #2.)
- 23XI Racing is doing pretty much what people should have expected. At the beginning of the season, there was much fanfare about NBA legend Michael Jordan joining forces with NASCAR superstar Denny Hamlin to put African-American driver Darrell Wallace, Jr. behind the wheel of the #23 Toyota for the 2021 season. At first, the results were encouraging. Wallace was quickest in practice for the Duels and nearly won his Duel that set the field for the Daytona 500. He finished 17th in the Daytona 500. The next three races saw the #23 car finish in the 20s. Last Sunday at Phoenix, Wallace ran in the top half of the field for much of the day, even leading on a restart and had his best finish of the season in 16th. For those who figured a big name superstar from another sport with a lot of money to spend was going to have instant success, Junior Johnson once said “To make a small fortune in racing, start with a large fortune.”23XI Racing wasn’t going to immediately be racking up wins or even Top 5s. They need to stay focused on getting that race team to become a well-oiled machine and improve every week.
- Bristol on dirt will either be a highlight or a disaster. On March 28, 2021 at Bristol Motor Speedway, NASCAR’s Cup Series will do something it has not done in over 30 years: race on dirt. Although the Camping World Truck Series held races on the dirt at Eldora Speedway from 2013-2019, only five winners (Austin Dillon, Darrell Wallace, Jr., Christopher Bell, Kyle Larson, and Chase Briscoe) will be in the field. It is expected that the uniqueness of the race will make it one of the best races of the year. While having drivers who normally race on asphalt sliding around on dirt will certainly be a sight to behold, it doesn’t necessarily mean that everyone will be pleased with the outcome. Some NASCAR history buffs will recall the 2001 Winston. Rain on the track caused slipper conditions which caused most of the cars to wreck on the first lap. Officials allowed drivers to go to back-up cars which saved the race for spectators. If, in 2021, drivers have the same issue with cars sliding around – and into each other – I doubt NASCAR will decide to stop the race and go to backups. It might be fun for viewers with nothing to lose but I doubt teams who find themselves out of the race after a lap or two will be cheering for dirt to remain a fixture on the NASCAR schedule.
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