Kyle Larson is on a roll, that much is for sure. With three runner-up finishes followed by two straight wins (at the Coco-Cola 600 in Charlotte and on the road course at Sonoma), Larson is definitely the hottest driver at any level in NASCAR right now. And while the All-Star Race – pretty much the dividing line on the regular season – is still a few days away, many are already talking that Larson is a shoe-in to compete in the Final Four at Phoenix and is perhaps poised to give Hendrick Motorsports a second straight Cup Championship.
To quote two-time Daytona 500-winning crew chief Larry McReynolds: PUMP. THE. BRAKES!
This is to take nothing away from Larson’s accomplishments. To come back from being banished from NASCAR and start the season with a new team and have the success that Larson has had is impressive.
However, the second half of the season and the playoffs are still to come. Larson’s run over the past half dozen races could be all for naught if he is watching someone else – be it Hendrick teammate Chase Elliott, Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, or someone else – hoist the trophy after the Season Finale in Phoenix this November. It will be even worse if he is eliminated from competing for a championship before the NASCAR season even makes it that far.
Momentum is a huge thing in NASCAR. Right now, Larson has “Big Mo” on his side. He has been touted as “The Next Jeff Gordon” and he might be hitting his stride now that he’s come to Hendrick Motorsports. However, momentum can be a fickle thing. It seems as if one misstep leads to teams having to scramble to catch up. Sometimes that’s in a single race and other times it’s the entire season.
Look no further than Stewart-Haas Racing. Over the past several years, it seemed as if SHR was one of the key teams in the NASCAR Cup Series. Then last year, it seemed as if Kevin Harvick was carrying the load for the team. Now, Cole Custer and rookie Chase Briscoe have spent little time near the front and Aric Almirola…well, it seems the old saying “If he didn’t have bad luck, he’d have no luck at all” has never been more relevant. Week in and week out, we’re just waiting for Almirola to be involved in some mishap or another.
Last year at this time, everyone just naturally assumed Kevin Harvick was going to be battling for a championship. He led the series in wins. This year, however, while Harvick has shown signs of running towards the front, those wins have evaporated, just like they have for his chief rival from a year ago, Denny Hamlin.
Throughout 2020, Harvick and Hamlin were the class of the field. However, when the smoke cleared at Phoenix, Harvick and Hamlin watched Chase Elliott celebrate being the 2020 Cup Champion. Hamlin had been the fourth of the Final Four drivers, while analysts and fans alike had been shocked when Harvick had been eliminated from the playoffs a week earlier after Martinsville.
Which brings us back to Kyle Larson. Just because Larson has back-to-back wins and three wins overall (the most of anyone in the Cup series), that does not ensure him a straight run to compete for the title in Phoenix.
A lot can happen in five months. Don’t believe me. Think about where the world was on January 1, 2020, compared to where it was on June 1, 2020. Odds are still probably pretty good that Larson, with the power of Hendrick Motorsports behind him, will still be in contention for Top 10s and Top 5s by November. However, there’s nothing to says his season won’t take an overall downturn which might not find him struggling to find Victory Lane when he needs to be there the most during the playoffs.
There’s also nothing that says the true powerhouse driver of 2021 is one we’re barely talking about right now. Everyone continues to expect Kevin Harvick and Denny Hamlin to start winning and while there’s a more and more hollow tone to that statement with each passing race, all it takes is one win and either Harvick or Hamlin is locked into the playoffs.
Remember 2010 when Tony Stewart said his team didn’t deserve to be in the playoffs? What happened? He got hot at the right time and won the championship. At the same time, Jimmie Johnson, at the height of his historic run, would habitually get hot at the beginning of the season to put him in contention for the championship, then cool down during the summer as they tried different things, only to get hot again in the fall during the final push to the title.
A combination of one driver getting hot at the right time and Larson going cold at the wrong time, and we’re not talking about Kyle Larson in November. This is not to diminish what Larson has done: it’s remarkable. What my point would be is that early season success doesn’t mean NASCAR should start engraving his name on the championship trophy just yet. Like any sports season, there will be ebb and flows, comers and goers.
If Larson can use his current momentum to overcome some down weeks, he will be well-positioned to compete and win the championship. But right now, it’s too early to tell who the Final Four, much less the champion might be.
johnmilner.ca 