If you follow this link, you will be taken to NASCAR’s coverage of the announcement that Christopher Bell will take over the #20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota in 2021.
If you couldn’t see this coming, well…there’s probably a joke I could make but since this is 2020, someone would get offended so I’ll refrain. But in all seriousness, as soon as Leavine Family Racing announced they were selling the #95 team, you knew Bell was in and Erik Jones was out at Joe Gibbs Racing.
With this announcement, as well as others including Brad Keselowski signing an extension with Penske, Tyler Reddick signing an extension with Richard Childress Racing and others, silly season is well underway. (You can see the complete “scorecard” that NBC Sports has created here.)
What does that mean? It means it is time once again for one of my favourite, if least successful, activities – trying to guess where everyone is going to end up in 2021. As always, if I get something right, you’ll never hear the end of it. If I am completely wrong, we’ll never speak of this again.
From checking out multiple sources, it seems there are a number of drivers and a number of possible rides. In addition to drivers already in Cup, we also have to include at least a few XFINITY drivers who will be moving up.
Let’s start off with the easy ones: Aric Almirola will stay with Stewart-Haas in the #10 Ford. Ty Dillon returns to the #13 Germain Racing Chevrolet, Matt DiBenedetto remains in the #21 Wood Brothers Ford, and Corey Lajoie returns to #32 GoFas Racing Ford.
Now on to the more difficult decisions:
Darrell Wallace, Jr. already has an ownership stake in Richard Petty Motorsports but said a deal was being worked on that would “send us over the top.” He used words like “us” and “this team” which may mean his marketing team but I think it’s more likely he means Richard Petty Motorsports. There have been rumours of him going to #42 Chip Ganassi Racing Chevrolet but I think Wallace stays with Petty, gets a larger ownership stake in what will be named Petty-Wallace Racing. I don’t think Bubba is naïve or egotistical enough to think just putting his name in the team moniker is enough to better his results. I think the deal he means is that they jump to Toyota (thus angering a lot of old school fans).
So who gets the #42? I think if Wallace is no longer in the running, this becomes a fairly easy pick. Ross Chastain will get a full-time Cup ride with Chip Ganassi Racing in the #42 Chevrolet. Ganassi will, however, limit Chastain’s overall rides, as Chastain will be out of the XFINITY and Truck Series for now.
Clint Bowyer is out of the #14 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford and Chase Briscoe is in. I think Bowyer announces his retirement and begins what should be a very entertaining announcing career, initially in the XFINITY and Trucks broadcasts but eventually joining Mike Joy and Jeff Gordon covering the Cup series.
While Leavine Family Racing may have sold their team (making it third Toyota team since 2015 to suddenly announce they were closing – you can read into that what you will as I would hate to be accused of being a conspiracy theorist), I am getting that it doesn’t necessarily seem to mean there will be no #95 team. I think whoever purchases it will probably end up being another JGR satellite with Austin Cindric in the seat, switching from a Penske Ford to a JGR Toyota.
Okay, before we briefly touch on the XFINITY and Trucks, we need to discuss the biggest ride available for 2021: the Hendrick Motorsports #48 Chevrolet being vacated by 7-time Cup Champion Jimmie Johnson. I had considered Wallace and even DiBenedetto (with Cendric moving to the #21 to remain with Penske and Brandon Jones in the #95). However, I think Justin Allgaier, despite not having a great year in XFINITY, gets the nod. With Hendrick using JR Motorsports as a feeder system, Allgaier is the best option. Neither Gragson nor Annett is Cup-ready, nor are any of the drivers who have been in the #8 this season.
I won’t look too much at the XFINITY and Trucks, as I don’t know just who might be in or who might be out at various rides. However, it would look like Stewart-Haas (Briscoe), Penske (Cindric), JR Motorsports (Allgaier) and Kaulig (Chastain) would have rides open for next season.
I know Noah Gragson’s name appeared on a Silly Season list (NASCAR.com’s perhaps) but I think he stays with JR Motorsports. I think Daniel Hemric gets Allgaier’s #7 Chevrolet to give him a full-time XFINITY ride (and don’t be suprised if that turns into a championship run). Erik Jones ends up out of the Cup series altogether and instead takes over Chastain’s ride at Kaulig Racing.
As for the Penske and Stewart-Haas rides, I’m going to make long-shot guesses because I don’t know the contract status but I’ll say Grant Enfinger (Stewart-Haas) and Todd Gilliland (Penske) with Ben Rhodes as a possibility for either ride. In 2021, at least, Jimmie Johnson, Matt Kenseth and Kyle Larson will not be racing full-time in the Cup Series.
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