Let me start this particular edition of John Milner’s Track Talk off with a shocking statement: I feel bad for Harrison Burton.
That statement is shocking because, after all, it’s hard to “feel bad” for a driver who’s just been called up to “The Show” as it were. However, the news that Burton would be driving the #21 Wood Brothers Ford in 2022 (and not Matt DiBenedetto) had to have disappointed many. I have to wonder if many fan’s response was like mine in thinking that “Well, that’s great for Burton, but what does it mean for Matty D?”
I also have to wonder if some of those “expressions of disappointment” on social media had to knock the wind of his sails. Knowing social media as I do, while there would have been a significant number of fans who might have simply shown support for Matty D, there had to have been a lot of people attacking Burton’s record in the Xfinity Series (which is not too shabby, 4 wins in a program that basically sees him running – at best – second fiddle to Kyle Busch’s ego) and his lack of experience in the Cup Series (1 start, earlier this year at Talladega). Without really meaning to, Harrison Burton may have become an unfortunate villain. It’s unfair because Burton did not suddenly swoop in and snatch DiBenedetto’s ride away, even though it might appear that way.
On a day where three major announcements came with regards to NASCAR’s Silly Season, the “Burton to the Wood Brothers” was the one that came out of nowhere. Austin Cindric was supposed to be in that ride next year. Then came the rumours (now all but officially confirmed) that Brad Keselowski would head to Roush-Fenway to take on a driver-owner role.
(Speaking of out of nowhere: Keselowski taking on an ownership role might not have been the biggest surprise. Brad had owned a truck team – Brad Keselowski Racing that fielded teams for, among others, wait for it…Austin Cindric, and Keselowski didn’t seem like his NASCAR career would only see him just being a driver. The surprise is that he will not be associated with Penske Racing after 2021. Yes, Brad ran for other Cup teams, including Hendrick Motorsports and Phoenix Racing early in his career, but he just seemed like he’d always be a part of the Penske program on some level, at least during his driving career.)
Immediately people began to assume Penske would change their plans, bringing Cindric to Brad’s #2 Ford, which is what happened. What didn’t happen is that NASCAR’s favourite underdog, Matt DiBenedetto, would be staying with the fabled Wood Brothers team.
These hopes were dashed with today’s announcement, bringing a lot of questions, speculation and uncertainty to DiBenedetto’s future. What car, what team and even what level will he find himself next year?
The announcement, as I stated earlier, was totally out of left field. Most Silly Season developments occur along the lines of the Cindric announcement. There are rumours and speculation for weeks, if not months, and there are multiple reasons to give credence to the rumours (ties to the organization). But the last few years have been unpredictable so why shouldn’t NASCAR follow suit.
I’m sure there are experts who will say “I totally saw this coming” and maybe I’m just some dumb###, but this took me by total surprise. Not only did I not think Burton was likely to be in Cup in 2022 but to be in a completely different team and manufacturer? If Joe Gibbs Racing had a spot open or a satellite team like Leavine Family Racing or Furniture Row Racing, even an announced second car at 23XI Racing, I don’t know that Burton would have been top of mind as compared to perhaps DiBenedetto or the Chip Ganassi drivers of Kurt Busch and Ross Chastain. (Speaking of shocking developments that no one saw coming!!!!)
As with a lot of major changes, these announcements leave in their wake a list of questions. The following are just some of the questions coming off the top of my head and my thoughts on possible answers. As with any guesses/predictions I make, if I am right, you’ll never hear the end of it. If I’m wrong, you’ll never hear about it again.
How will Cindric and Burton fare in Cup in 2022?
Of the two, I think Cindric has the better results. He’s been brought through the Penske organization (his father, Tim, is President of Team Penske) and is driving the same car Keselowski has won in. Burton will be making major changes and while the Wood Brothers are one of NASCAR’s most successful teams and have the alliance with Penske, they’re not quite on par with Penske.
What does Roush-Fenway look like in 2022?
If Brad Keselowski joining the team in 2022 has all but officially been announced, so has Ryan Newman’s departure and, sadly, most likely retirement (instead of Roush-Fenway expanding to three cars). With the team renamed Roush-Fenway-Keselowski, Keselowski will step into the #6 and Chris Buescher remains in the #17. The team doesn’t really improve on-track at least for the first few years.
Who fills the vacant Xfinity seats (#22 Penske Ford and #20 Gibbs Toyota)?
The JGR portion is seemingly the easier of the two to answer but not as easy as you might think. Ty Gibbs is just awaiting the media release to celebrate his move to full-time Xfinity racing next year. With Kyle Busch “retiring” from Xfinity, one might have initially assumed the #54 ride would be his. But with Burton going to Cup, does the #54 retire as well – to honour Busch in yet another ego stroke – and Gibbs goes to #20? Or is the #54 used as an “All-Star” car as well as an audition vehicle for other possible JGR drivers? I say #Ty20 is a thing in 2022. Meanwhile, JGR will still want to keep four cars just to give them an advantage over the other teams but it will be a new number.
With Penske, it’s a tough call. Cindric is their only Xfinity driver and they’ve had no truck team since Brad Keselowski Racing closed after the 2017 season. It’s not even like they’ve had a second Xfinity car that wasn’t a Cup driver entry. Whoever gets put in the #22 Ford in 2022 will have to come from outside the organization. I’m tempted to say Josh Berry but I think Penske will be looking for someone who might be a future, long-term Cup driver for them by 2023-2024. Instead, I’ll pick another JR Motorsports driver who recently said his future plans were up in the air: Noah Gragson. (Berry, instead takes over Gragson’s #9 Chevy.)
What happens to the Chip Ganassi drivers?
I think this is fairly easy. Kurt Busch heads to the second 23XI ride when it becomes official, for at least a year before retiring and then a JGR Xfinity driver (Ty Gibbs to give ) takes over. Ross Chastain remains in the #42 when it becomes the second Trackhouse ride in 2022.
Where does Matt DiBenedetto drive in 2022?
I know that everyone will want to see Matt DiBenedetto in a top Cup ride in 2022 but sadly, I don’t think that happens. I think he has two options – go to a Front Row-level organization or head back to Xfinity. Perhaps the success that John Hunter Nemechek is seeing by dropping all the way down to the Truck Series will show Matt D that leaving Cup might not be a bad thing. I don’t know that it would happen, instead of Josh Berry, but how cool would it be to see DiBenedetto run the #9 JR Motorsports if Gragson leaves?
Of course, Dale Earnhardt Jr. did hint that JR Motorsports might put together a Cup team with the introduction of the Next Gen car in 2022. You don’t think????
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