As William Byron, driving the #24 Hendrick Chevrolet, crossed the finish line at Daytona to win the 2020 Coke Zero Sugar 400, the playoff field for NASCAR’s Cup field was set. Sixteen drivers will compete to win a championship.
This is always a fun time of the season for NASCAR fans, especially prognosticators like me. Certainly there will be drivers (I can name two right off the top of my head, and if you’ve been following along, you can as well) who will be making a beeline for the Final Four, others who are probably done in three races but there are also drivers who might be capable of upsetting what might look like the natural order of things.
As I usually do around this time of year, I’m going to give my predictions of how the playoffs will progress. If you read my previous blog, you probably know the drill: If I get this right, you’ll never hear the end of it. If I am completely wrong across the board, we’ll never speak of this again.
Drivers Out After the Round of 16
- A. Dillon
- C. Custer
- W. Byron
- M. DiBenedetto
Notes: I don’t think there are too many surprises here. I would like to see Dillon or DiBenedetto perhaps pull an upset and advance to the next round, but I think all four drivers gave it everything they had just to make the playoffs, so advancing beyond the first round might be a little too hopeful. By the way, had Jimmie Johnson made the playoffs, I might have hated to do it, but I probably would have placed him in this category.
Drivers Out After the Round of 12
- A. Bowman
- C. Bowyer
- Kurt Busch
- Kyle Busch
Notes: Yes! You read that right! I believe Kyle Busch, reigning series champion, will be eliminated in the second round. I know that Joe Gibbs Racing, Toyota, and perhaps NASCAR in general, would like to see Busch win eight championships and break the Earnhardt/Petty/Johnson standard so they can continue to proclaim him “The Greatest Driver of All Time” but unless there’s another suspicious fluke like Homestead last year, I don’t think Busch gets it done this year. I don’t necessarily think he goes winless in 2020 but I definitely think his lack of wins to this point (he comes into the playoffs below the cutline) catches up to him. I almost had Kurt Busch out and Byron in but I think Kurt’s experience and Ganassi Racing’s power gets him past the first round. (Experience is also why I had Bowman, not Byron advance.)
Drivers Out After the Round of 8
- C. Elliott
- J. Logano
- R. Blaney
- A. Almirola
Notes: This is always a tough round because you have to ask “Why does Driver A make it to the Final Four but not Driver B?” And in 2020, you kow Harvick and Hamlin will make the Final Four but who joins them? I think I could be wrong on Logano being out after the Round of 8 and I certainly would be okay if Elliott made the Final Four. I think Blaney is probably another year before he’s making the Final Four and Almirola is probably a long shot to advance as well.
The Final Four
- K. Harvick
- D. Hamlin
- B. Keselowski
- M. Truex, Jr.
Notes: If you look at the current Cup Standings, you’ll see that there’s a significant drop in the points between Hamlin (#2) and Keselowski (#3), at least when compared to the difference between Keselowski and teammate Joey Logano (#4). I think that difference is enough to get him into the Final Four. As for why Truex is in the Final Four, it’s a combination of the Gibbs cars and how strong Truex personally has been in the playoffs the last few years (there’s reason to argue he could – even should – be a three-time reigning champion).
My prediction for the 2020 Cup Champion is: Denny Hamlin. If you look at the current stats, Harvick has more wins, Top 5s, Top 10s and laps led than Hamlin. However, I think 2019 should have been Hamlin’s year and even after a loss at the season finale at Homestead (in which he had the worst car of the Final Four and a suspiciously bad pit stop), Hamlin seems to have shaken off the disappointment and come back refocused to win a championship. As long as Hamlin is given a decent car and a chance, I think he’ll finally get the championship. I won’t suggest Harvick will be a non-factor but I think Hamlin will be just that much ahead of him coming to the checkered flag.
Prediction for the XFINITY and Gander RV & Outdoor Trucks Series
While all three national series begin at Daytona and have their respective season finales at Phoenix, for some reason they neglected to have their regular seasons all end on the same weekend. No matter, for our purposes, we can assume that the current playoff picture doesn’t change too much. (While there may be a Johnny Sauter or Stewart Friesen who can snag a win and a playoff spot in the Trucks, I don’t think there’s anyone similar in the XFINITY Series.) Unlike the Cup series, I’m just jumping to the Final Four.
XFINITY Series Final Four:
- A. Cindric
- C. Briscoe
- J. Allgaier
- N. Gragson
The 2020 XFINITY Series Champion will be: Chase Briscoe
Notes: Cindric and Briscoe are going to be the XFINITY Series of Harvick and Hamlin. They will be the pair dominating the playoffs and the only real questions are (a) who else will be joining them in the Final Four and (b) who will win the championship? I think Allgaier has shaken off the bad luck and bad runs that plagued his season and goes on a run. Perhaps not winning to the extent Cindric and Briscoe do but a few, and gets a number of good finishes. Gragson follows him to the Final Four on the strength of JR Motorsports. I’ll give Briscoe the nod for the championship because he will channel his off-track tragedies and get the win.
Gander RV & Outdoor Truck Series Final Four:
- Sheldon Creed
- Zane Smith
- Grant Enfinger
- Matt Crafton
The 2020 Gander RV & Outdoor Truck Series Champion will be: Grant Enfinger
Notes: As I recently wrote, I think this is the series that will be the most interesting to watch because unlike the other top series, there has been a dominant driver (or actually a dominant pair of drivers). While Sheldon Creed currently has three wins, I don’t see him running away from the field. (I actually had former Series Champion Brett Moffitt replacing him in the Final Four.) I think, like many Final Fours in the Truck series, there will be veterans and youngsters. I give the nod as far as the championship goes to a veteran, Enfinger, who had a great regular series run in 2019 but was eliminated early. I think he rebounds and gets it done in 2020.
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