For more articles on NASCAR, visit https://johnmilner.ca/track-talk/ and talk about them – and anything NASCAR-at https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=61569092154997.
So, we’ve had approximately two weeks to digest, discuss and decide about the long-awaited announcement by NASCAR that the Playoff were history, to be replaced by the return of the Chase. I have to admit that I’ve written about five drafts of this particular article.
Truth be told, I LOVED the Playoff system! I liked the idea that every race win meant something, especially the superspeedways that gave the middle-of-the-pack teams a chance (even briefly) to be part of the championship picture. I argued that having eight drivers and therefore eight fanbases still fully engaged with two races to go, and four still involved by the time the green flag flew on the season finale, was good for the sport.
As the announcement approached, I can admit to having a bit trepidatious about the direction that NASCAR was going to go. As much as everyone believes a return to the full season point system will be the be-all and end-all solution, I have multiple issues with such claims.
- First of all, the dominant driver will not necessarily be rewarded with the championship. In 1985, Bill Elliott won 11 races, including three of the four Winston Million races (the Daytona 500, the Talladega 500 and the Southern 500). Darrell Waltrip won three races and won the 1985 championship.
- Secondly, while the marketing of this version of the Chase focused heavily on “no eliminations,” the old point system would often have all but one driver eliminated well before the last race of the season. When they tried the Chase the last time, everyone knew who was going to be crowned champion by the time they showed up at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Sure sometimes they could hype a long-shot second driver that might win if the first driver blew an engine on the first lap, but otherwise they could start engraving the trophy the week or two before. In 1987, they announced that the point lead Dale Earnhardt had after the July 26 Talladega race was such that he was enroute to another championship. (There were still four months and 12 races left in the season.)
- Finally, if a driver comes into the final race of the season and knows he/she only has to finish in the Top 20 to clinch a championship, that’s where they will race. After 12 years that saw the eventual Cup champion have to race for first in the Championship Final, it is far more believable that going forward, you will watch drivers claim the championship after finishing 31st, arguing that they were saving their tires and equipment, rather than risk a wreck. (Bill Elliott, in his 2006 autobiography, Awesome Bill from Dawsonville: My Life In NASCAR, said that was his mentality during the final race of his 1988 championship season.)
- However, my biggest concern was that a middle ground hybrid of the Playoffs and the Full-Season Point System would be a Chase that limited the number of participants to ten and therefore all but eliminate any mid-pack team from being part of the championship picture. Sure, we all know the four Hendrick cars, the four Joe Gibbs Racing cars, the three Penske cars and, of course, the three 23XI cars would be the top contenders to be part of those ten. This would leave Spire, RCR, Kaulig, Front Row, RFK, Legacy, Wood Brother, Trackhouse, etc., etc. out in the cold for years to come. To me, such a move (and the sponsorship implications) would be a case where the rich get richer and the rest fade away.
When the announcement was made, back on January 12, I had to admit: there was a lot to like with the return of the Chase. First of all, there will be 16 drivers who make the Playoffs, the exact same number as those who made the Playoffs. While the “Win and You’re In” element is gone, there is still points incentive to go for the win. Moreover, wins plus consistency will be key to qualifying for the Chase.
My enthusiasm was tempered, however, by just how much marketing went into tarnishing the old Playoff system. As I said, I loved that system so I can admit that maybe that’s where my bias is coming from. In watching NASCAR and their assortment of the Blue Checkmark Brigade, current drivers and a handful of legends discuss the Chase, it seemed less like “This is a good thing” and more of a “It’s not the bad thing we all complained about.”
They trumpeted the fact that it’s no longer “Win and Get In” which as I stated earlier I liked, although ironically for the very reason I think the NASCAR media hated about it. I like Talladega and Daytona (and now Atlanta) because it offers a more level playing field. It gives Michael McDowell and Spire a chance to win. It gave Harrison Burton and the Wood Brothers a chance to win and make the Playoffs. It gives those smaller teams a chance to go to sponsors and say, “We’re part of the championship picture. With additional sponsorship and additional resources, we can advance further and take your brand further.”
I have to be honest. If I’m Harrison Burton, I’m p!ssed. Imagine getting your first Cup win, helping the Wood Brothers get their 100th win and make the Playoffs, and the reaction of the Blue Checkmark Brigade is to point to that win as a reason for changing the Playoff system.
NASCAR’s marketing team also claimed that there would be “No Eliminations.” I won’t repeat what I said above but I will say I think it’s a bit naïve to believe that all 16 drivers will still be in contention to win the championship going to Homestead-Miami Speedway on November 8. There will be eliminations; there simply won’t be scheduled eliminations. To give an example, in 2013, Dale Earnhardt, Jr. suffered an engine failure during the GEICO 400 at Chicagoland and finished 35th. It was announced even before Junior got the car to pit lane that his chances in the Playoffs were pretty much nil. Chicagoland was the first race of the 2013 Chase. Someone did the math and determined that someone could clinch the championship as early as the fifth race of the 2026 Chase (Las Vegas). To me, that would indicate that as many as 15 eliminations could occur before the Chase was half over.
Speaking of Dale Jr., he was vocal about how much he had disliked the Playoff system, saying that the system had made him start to fall out of love with NASCAR. He cited the “lack of storylines” as the root cause. With all due respect to Dale Earnhardt, Jr., the Playoffs produced a few storylines:
- In 2014, Jeff Gordon qualified for the Final Four with a win at Martinsville. He joyfully announced “We’re going to Homestead” after the win. The race at Homestead, in which Gordon could have won his fifth championship, was his last as a full-time driver in NASCAR.
- In 2022, Ross Chastain, needing two positions to advance to the Final Four, performed a breathtaking move called the “Hail Melon”, riding the wall at Martinsville in a move that captured the imagination and beyond. (To give you an idea, people who didn’t know anything else about NASCAR were talking to me about Chastain’s move.)
- In 2025, the biggest storyline in NASCAR coming into the final Cup race of the season at Phoenix was Denny Hamlin’s quest to finally win a Cup championship, in the same year he had won his 60th career Cup race to make the Top 10 All-Time Wins List, and with his father ailing and not expected to live to see another season finale. (My suspicion is that because Hamlin didn’t win and therefore the media didn’t get to tell the story, NASCAR was forced to move forward with the elimination of the Playoffs.)
- As I stated before, every year coming into the penultimate race, eight drivers and therefore eight stories could be told. During the buildup to the season finale, there were still four stories. I would argue that the Playoff format, with four drivers still in contention, gave everyone a choice. Even if your driver was out of contention by the time they got to Phoenix, you could still find someone – at least for one race – to cheer for. Now, unless you like the points leader coming into the final race, you’re not going to as engaged. This is going to lead to people not really caring about watching the race, either all of it or any of it. It could lead to people drifting away from NASCAR. (“I didn’t even watch the last race last year so I’m not going to bother watching this year.”)
To be perfectly honest, the call prior to the announcement of the Chase wasn’t a return to that format. In fact, most of the Blue Checkmark Brigade had spent years bemoaning that format just as much as they did the Playoff system. They want the old point system back, having convinced themselves and anyone who will listen that it’s the only way NASCAR will ever be exciting.
Yes, in 1992, the final race in Atlanta had three drivers (Bill Elliott, Davey Allison and eventual champion Alan Kulwicki) in contention for the championship, with three more (Kyle Petty, Mark Martin and Harry Gant) as longshots.
And yes, in 2010, the Chase came down to Tony Stewart and Carl Edwards finishing in a tie.
However, there are many, many, many instances where the championship picture was decided before the green flag ever dropped. Jeff Gordon in 2001. Earnhardt in 1987. I remember watching one race (1990 or 1991) where Earnhardt simply had to complete one lap to clinch the championship.
To launch into perhaps the most controversial part of this particular piece, I refer to what NASCAR has launched as “temporary appeasement.” While the anti-Playoff sentiment had been simmering for perhaps a year or so, it certainly gained steam through Mark Martin’s crusade of the past few months and simmered to a boil even before the Denny Hamlin story was unable to be told after the Cup Season Finale. It began about 18 hours before when Jesse Love and not Connor Zilisch won the Xfinity Championship. (And again, how much must it suck for Love to have won the biggest race of his career and immediately have the media and fans crap all over it?) As I had expected might happen, with Zilisch winning 10 races, the masses would accept no one else as the eventual champion and would use his loss to Love as further fuel on the fire.
My expectations for the return to the Chase are that it won’t last the year before calls for a return to the full-season point system begins again. Basically, if their predicted winner comes up short, the results will be used to decry that the Chase – which they will immediately all reveal that they hated all along – should be out. There’s nothing that says that a driver couldn’t win three or four races in the regular season, have bad results at Darlington, Worldwide Technology Raceway and Bristol and be out of contention at that point. Should that happen, I am guessing the calls for a change will begin again.
Having said all 1800-plus words of that, I will temper my opinion on how the Chase will play out by saying that the first lap of practice for the Clash, much less Daytona, has yet to be played out. There is a whole season of racing yet to come. Let’s give this new format a chance. If in November, there were three or four drivers still in championship contention and it came down to an exciting finish, I’ll certainly change my views.
As a great driver once said, let’s go racing!
johnmilner.ca 